FXUS66 KMFR 182155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
255 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon observations are showing mainly clear
skies with a few cumulus clouds across northwestern Douglas
County. This dry and warm day will likely be the last of this
pattern as model trends have indicated the cooler pattern should
be arriving tomorrow. This means one last night of mild
temperatures and east winds.

The most noticeable change in the pattern will come  in the
temperatures with highs only getting toward normal conditions by
next weekend (mid to upper 70s to low 80s west side valleys; upper
60s to low 70s east side; and continued mid 60s at the coast).

Normally with a troughing pattern, we would be talking about
precipitation, but southern Oregon and northern California will
remain precipitation-free since most of the precipitation will
occur closer to the center of the low to the north and east of
our area. Winds, however, will become breezy from the north,
particularly in the afternoons this week.

This pattern continues into the weekend. Similar conditions with
less winds are expected Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures could
warm a few degrees, but we`re not expecting to get back to where
we were this week.

Finally, another low pressure system moves into the Pacific
Northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near
normal, and winds will become breezy once again, but this time we
will introduce precipitation into the forecast. The best chance of
showers on Monday afternoon will be along the Cascade Crest north
of Crater Lake. On Tuesday, showers will be more likely along and
east of the Cascades. Because it`s late June, it is hard to
imagine that a few thunderstorms would not occur in a pattern like
this, so have added a slight chance for thunderstorms in the
forecast for those areas. Please stay tuned for updates in the
forecast as thunderstorm chances will like change in the coming
days. -Schaaf


.AVIATION...For the 18/18Z TAFS...Along the coast and over the
coastal waters...VFR is occurring late this morning and will
continue into early afternoon before ceilings of around 1000 feet
(near-IFR) return early in the evening. Gusty north winds are
expected again this afternoon and evening along the coast and will
extend into the Roseburg area (though lesser wind there).
Elsewhere...VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. -Schaaf


.MARINE...Updated 245 PM PDT Tuesday, 18 June 2019...
A thermal trough will remain in place near the coast into the
weekend. This will support moderate north winds and steep seas north
of Cape Blanco and strong north winds and a mix of steep to very
steep seas south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas will peak this
afternoon through Wednesday evening for most locations, though the
latest guidance suggests winds may peak where Buoy 27 is usually
located Thursday evening. While winds are expected to weaken a little
Friday and Saturday, an area of gales is still expected for a
portion of the area beyond 10 NM of the coast west of Brookings. BTL


.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday 18 June 2019...A thermal
trough remains along the coast through tonight, and this will drive
another night of offshore (northeast) winds and moderate to locally
poor humidity recoveries in the coastal mountains. An upper trough
to our north causes pressure gradients to increase tomorrow, and
this will drive gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours,
especially over interior west side valleys and the east side.
Temperatures will be a little cooler tomorrow, but it will remain
dry, so the combination of low humidities and gusty winds will
produce near critical fire weather conditions. The upper trough and
an associated dry cold front move through Thursday bringing cooler
and slightly more humid conditions, but winds will be gusty once

Temperatures warm back up to around or slightly above normal Friday
through the weekend. Then another, possibly stronger, upper trough
moves over the area early to mid next week. This will bring the next
chance of showers to our area. Model consistency is high and thus
confidence is growing that this will occur. While models are modest
in the instability at this time, history suggests that troughs in
June bring lightning, and thus thunderstorms have been added to the
forecast for the east side early next week. -Wright




Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for
     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.


NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion